Spring Stats

Spring stats are fun to look at. The problem is, they just aren’t worth that much. One. There’s the small sample size issue. Two. A ton of the guys who play in the Cactus League will be spending the upcoming season in Double, Triple or even Single-A. Three. Veterans don’t really give a crap about their spring stats, so long as they’re getting their work in. Four. The games are played in Arizona, where the dry climate tends to make breaking ball, um, not break, and turn guys like Rajai Davis into Rickey Henderson.

With these qualifications in mind I’m certainly not about to make broad sweeping generalizations about a couple of the team’s first basemen. That would just be silly and downright unscientific. But at the same time Daric Barton and Jason Giambi have both had noteworthy springs, and both for rather different reasons.

Coming into play today Barton has put up a line of .407/.448/.704. That’s certainly better than anybody could have hoped for, especially considering the late start that he got due to a couple of nagging injuries, and his utterly woeful 2008. Even still, Barton’s ticketed for Sacramento, and I think that makes a lot of sense. If Barton’s still doing what he’s doing right now come June, I know the A’s will find a spot for him. Between injuries, and ineffectiveness on the big club there’s no way they don’t.

Giambi meanwhile, the old man brought in to supplant the kid has to this point slashed .147/.235/.341. No big deal. Giambi’s just a vet getting his reps in. Getting ready for when it actually counts. I’m not worried about Giambi’s less than stellar spring. No, seriously. I swear. I’m not. I mean, I’ve been president of the “Bring Back Giambi Fan Club” for years. I certainly wouldn’t try to suggest that Giambi is about to suffer a catastrophic age-related decline on the basis of 34 at-bats in March. That just wouldn’t make any sense.

But at the same time, I wasn’t in the least bit concerned by Travis Buck’s spring last year, and we all know how that turned out. Yea, the situations are a bit different. Giambi’s going into his fifteenth season, Buck was entering his second. I guess I’d just like to see a little life in the big guys bat before the team heads north for the summer.

So what do you think? At what point does Giambi’s lack of statistical success begin to concern you? When he enters the regular season with a BA south of .200? When he’s still under .200 and the calendar turns to May? Or the third option: You are an idiot. Giambi will be fine. Please explain below.

The Steroid Witch Hunt: Part III

It was while doing research for this profile that I realized that my idea wasn’t quite as ingenious as I had originally imagined. Though I had more or less stumbled upon the first two players that I had profiled, the following post demonstrates that all I’m really doing is looking for spikes in home run totals and then pointing my finger and saying: Hey, you! Yea, you over there. You’re a cheater! That’s not really scientific, or empirical or even all that convincing. But then I remembered this guy.



I mean, look at him. Are you kidding me? That guy hit 38 home runs? I can barely believe that guy even played in the major leagues. He looks like a seventh grade math teacher. Get out of here Jay Bell. You sir, did steroids.

The left handed reliever

At the moment the A's have six lefties in big league camp:

Braden
Eveland
Anderson
Gonzalez
Outman
Blevins

All but Blevins have, or are in the running for a rotation spot. Well, as per rotoworld, Gio has just been removed from the hunt due to a bum wing that has kept him off the bump. It would seem pretty obvious then that Blevins, if only by default, would be the lone lefty out of the pen to begin the season. But the month of March has not been kind to the tall left hander.

Today he was touched up for 6 hits and 3 runs in just one inning of work, balloning his spring ERA to 11.74. That's just not gonna cut it. Even when you are seemingly competing against yourself for a spot. Of course, Jerry isn't competing against himself.

Outman and Gio are very much factors in the bullpen competition. Note what Bob Geren said about Gio's situation earlier today:

"He just hasn't been able to throw enough [to be considered for the rotation at this point]."

While time isn't on his side--he isn't expected to do any throwing for another week--the possibility does remain that Gio could open the season in the pen. Using Gio as a reliever wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but it's also far from ideal.

Gio's 23, a former top prospect and has a career minor league K/9 ratio of 10.5. Dude should be starting somewhere. Be it in Oakland or Sacramento. The same could be said for Outman to a slightly lesser extent. Which brings me to two questions. One. When do organizational needs trump development needs of individual players? Two. Who the heck is going to be the lefty out of the pen?

So who do you like:
Outman
Gio (if healthy)
Blevins
Other (outside of organization)
None

Please explain you selection below.

The slightly more than five million dollar man

Bobby Crosby isn’t very good. But worse than that he’s expensive. As it currently stands he’s supposed to be something of a utility infielder. Problem is, Bobby Crosby can’t really play anywhere but shortstop. That might sound strange, but from the reports I’ve read out of Phoenix it seems to be true. Apparently he looks uncomfortable at third, doesn’t know what he’s doing at first, and is downright awful at second. That doesn’t bode well for his future in Oakland.

The way I see it the A’s have three options. One. Hope Crosby figures out how to field a couple of positions other than shortstop. Two. Hope that some other team’s shortstop breaks a leg and try to pawn him off on them. Of course, this option almost certainly entails the A’s eating something like 3-4 million dollars. Three. Give him the outright release.

I’m holding out for option number two, but am beginning to think option number three is the most likely outcome. The biggest holdup to giving Crosby the boot is the fact that he will be making 5.25 million dollars this season. There are those who say that Crosby is a sunken cost and that the A’s may as well cut their losses now. While there are others who say the A’s should get what little value they can from Crosby and that they should keep the dude around. To fully understand the team’s financial commitment to Crosby, however, I think the situation must be examined in the proper historical context. To do so, let’s take a quick little trip back to April 2005.

At the time Bobby Crosby was coming off a campaign in which he smashed 22 homeruns and nabbed Rookie of the Year Honors. The slash line was a bit troubling—.239/.319/.426—but still, 24-year-old shortstops with that type of power don’t just grow on trees. So Billy Beane decided to do what Billy Beane does best and tried to beat the market. He locked up Crosby for five years at 12.75 million dollars.

The terms of the deal seemed team friendly enough. Hell, even if Crosby never improved off his first season he’d still be worth every penny. No way could this deal go wrong. Not a chance. Think about it. Beane had just bought what would be Crosby’s most productive five seasons for just under 13 million bucks. Awesome.

But then Bobby Crosby happened. The injuries. The sliders off the plate. More injuries. More sliders off the plate. From the day he signed that contract, until, well, today, Crosby has been awful, injured, or some combination therein. (Note: In 2005, he actually managed an .802 OPS, but that was in all of 84 games.) In the past three seasons he’s put up back, to back, to back sub-.650 OPS lines.

And now we return to the present and Bobby Crosby doesn’t have a starting spot, maybe not even a job on this year’s team. And no matter how many at-bats he gets this season he still gets paid the same. But when I think about it in this larger context I don’t feel quite so bad.

Sure, it sucks that the team is on the hook to pay Crosby in ’09, but I have a hard time blaming Beane for his gamble. If anything, I think it validates his general strategy of going year by year with the young guys. And if ever there was a time to break from this strategy, a young power hitter who plays a premium defensive position would seem to present a pretty good opportunity to do so.

So what do you think? Does viewing the Bobby Crosby situation in this context make you feel any better? Do you fault Beane for taking the risk, or do you just never want to see Bobby Crosby flail at a slider again?

Money

Today a friend of mine told me that I am the stingiest man that has ever lived. With that in mind, let’s talk about the Oakland Athletics, and their young pitchers in specific. Cahill, Anderson and Mazzaro have all had pretty freaking amazing springs. Probably better than anybody could have hoped for. But not only have they put up impressive stats, they have also been praised by the likes of Jason Giambi and Billy Beane for exuding a quiet confidence, and the general sense that they, well, belong. And maybe they do belong in Oakland come Opening Day.

There almost certainly isn’t room for all three, but with 6 guys still competing for what appears to be 2 open spots, it’s not absurd to think that two of them could make the rotation. Of course, spring performance is not the only factor that plays a part in such decisions. There are also economic matters to consider. Namely the fact that if the A’s hold these three back for say three weeks in Sacramento the team will have them under club control for one extra year. I tend to think that’s kind of a big deal.

Yes, that’s a bit cheap, but isn’t that exactly what the Rays did with Evan Longoria last season? Sure, they turned around and handed him a contract extension, but if Longoria continues to put up numbers like he did in his rookie season, that deal is going to end up looking ridiculously club friendly.

So here’s the question: should arb. clocks factor into the team’s decision of whether or not the young guys begin the season in the rotation? I say yes. Of course, there’s also the minor consideration that a little more Triple-A seasoning, or in Cahill’s case his first taste, couldn’t hurt.

The Triple-A infield

As the post below demonstrates, I've been thinking quite a bit recently about the A's glut of not quite that good, or in other cases not quite ready infielders. With that in mind, I have reached a new low. Today I am rosterbating about the Rivercat’s infield situation. Here’s the list of players who could see time in ’09.

Barton
Doolittle
Bozied
Petit
Pennington
Patterson
Wimberly
Chen
Baisley
Dillon

This list doesn’t even include Jack Hannahan who very well could end up in Sacramento if Ellis and Chavez are both ready for Opening Day. So how do 10 guys share four positions? Let’s break it down by position.

First base:
It's easy to forget that just one calendar year separates Daric Barton and Sean Doolittle. Doolittle is coming off a very impressive big league camp, and Barton is very much in the team’s future plans, so the pair of youngsters will split time at first base. Both, of course, are lefties, so no platoon to be had here. Between Barton DHing and Doolittle playing right, both of their bats will be in the lineup everyday. A huge first half by Chris Carter in Midland could further complicate the situation, and I haven't even considered minor league vet Tagg Bozied fits in. Unless he spends time in left field/DH, it looks like he'll get released.

The Middle infield:
Gregorio Petit, Cliff Pennington, Eric Patterson, Corey Wimberly and Yung Chi Chen. One would think that Petit and Pennington would switch off at second and short, but that doesn’t leave much room for Patterson and Wimberly. Assuming he’s not traded, Patterson probably figures to see most of his action in left field. I get the feeling that the organization thinks very highly of Wimberly and his stirrups, so he probably sees time at five or six positions. Basically everywhere but first. Chen looks like he might go from 40-man to released in the span of a couple of weeks. Either that, or he’s headed to Midland.

Third base:
Jeff Baisley and Joe Dillion will probably share the hot corner, but as they are both righties there are no obvious platoon opportunities. Further crowding the picture is the presence of Hannahan and the fact that Petit, Pennington and Wimberly all could see time at third base.

Conclusions:
As it currently stands, it looks like three of these guys are going to get released or demoted. Of course factoring in injuries and general crapiness, it will probably just be two. Barton, Doolittle, Petit, Pennington and Wimberly all seem to have spots locked up. Any of the other five, however, could be in danger. I see Chen as the most likely release candidate followed by Bozied, and Patterson seems the most likely to leave via a trade. I can see him being dealt for a high upside, high risk A-baller. Dillon’s versatility, and Baisley’s roster status probably keep them on the squad. In the end, it seems as though there will be a lot of infielders taking fly balls for the Rivercats next season.

Stone hands

I think a lot of A's fans, at least, those who follow the minor leagues were a bit confused when the team let last year's Texas League Batting Champ Jesus Guzman sign with the Giants this past offseason. At the time, third base was kind of a how do we say... organizational black hole. Yes, that's the phrase.

Anyways, since then things have gotten a little better. Nomar is now in the green and gold, but Eric Chavez is injured, or experiencing a set back or something like that. Point is, nobody should be counting on Chavez to be in the lineup come Opening Day, and if you think Nomar can play six days a week, well, you are just fooling yourself.

After those two guys, the third base depth chart looks something like this:

Crosby
Hannahan
Petit
Pennington
Baisley
Dillon
Chen

I'm not sure if that's the exact order, but I think you get the point. Nothing too exciting. Most of those guys on the list will give you solid defense, but none of them are going to give you much in the way of offense. Which is where Guzman comes in, or rather doesn't.

The reason why Guzman chose the Giants over the A's was that San Fransisco was willing to extend him an invite to big league camp. The A's weren't. Until now, (thanks Mr. Baggarly) I hadn't heard the A's logic for making this decision. So here's what David Forst had to say:

"He hadn't played much in Triple-A and our player development people weren't sure what position he'd ultimately play," said Forst, who wished Guzman well. "There's no doubt he can hit, but we already had other guys with similar defensive profiles and we couldn't justify bringing Jesus in."

Okay, so the organization has guys with similar defensive profiles, but do they have anybody with a similar offensive profile? Maybe. There's a chance that Crosby might outhit Guzman in '09, but there's also a chance that Guzman might be really freaking good. Crosby, not so much.

My question is this: how bad must Guzman's defense be for the team to give an invite to Dillon, and roster spots to all the others? I'm guessing pretty awful. What type of defense would you put up with for the offensive potential of someone like Guzman? Should the A's have resigned Guzman, or will nobody even remember his name two years from now?

Can’t. stop. rosterbating.

Pitchers (12)

Starters (5)
Eveland
Braden

Pick Three:
E. Gonzalez
G. Gonzalez
Vince Mazzaro
Gallagher

I pick:
E. Gonzalez
Mazzaro
I have no idea.

Relievers (7)
Ziegler
Springer
Wuertz
Casilla
Devine^
Long man
Lefty

^Joey Devine really is a true Athletic. I have no faith in his ability to be ready for Opening Day.

Darkhorse: Andrew Bailey

Position Players (13)
Suzuki
Powell
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Sweeney
Cabrera
Nomar
Buck
Davis
Hannahan
Crosby
Mark Chavez*

*I am certain that one of, if not both of Ellis/Chavez will not be ready for Anaheim. Thus Jack Hannahan. The list of reserve infielders is as so: Hannahan, Petit, huge gap, Cliff-.077- Pennington, Corey-Not-on-the-40-Man-Wimberly.

Questions. One. Who should get the final three spots in the rotation? Two. Who the heck is the long man (seems like the perfect spot for the recently departed Jerome Williams), and can we please sign Joe Beimel already? Three. If Mark Ellis isn’t ready to go on April 6, what does your infield alignment look like? Crosby at short, Cabrera at second. Or. Hannahan at second, Crosby on bench.

Quick Note: A couple of thoughts on the backup catcher situation

One. If Landon Powell is going to be Kurt's new caddy, I would like to see him also become a part of the first base rotation. Ideally, nearly all of these at-bats would go to the likes of Nomar and Giambi, but for the sake of keeping Powell fresh I think it might not be such a bad idea to play him at first as well.

Two. Assuming Bowen loses his 40-man spot one way or another, who gets it? A non-roster pitcher? Maybe an Edgar Gonzalez or one of the young starters? I say Vince Mazzaro. So who do you see claiming the spot?

The Steroid Witch Hunt: Part II

Fernando Tatis was that dude who hit two grand slams in one inning. That is really cool. Like historically cool. No seriously, it is. Nobody else has ever done that. Ever. Anyways, The Bombing of Chan Ho Park occurred back in 1999, the same year in which Tatis hit 34 dingers. Outside of that season, however, Fernando has pretty much been a scrub.

Well, that’s not entirely true. In 2000 he actually OPSed .870, but after a miserable 2003 he was out of a job, and only managed 56 at-bats over the next four seasons before resurfacing with the Mets last summer. In fact, Tatis' '99 season accounts for 33% of his career home run total. So what was I saying again? Oh yea. Fernando Tatis: you sir, did steroids.

The Landon Powell Era begins

As per the Drumbeat it appears as though the A's will have a new backup catcher in 2009. That makes sense when you consider that backup catchers usually have a shelf life of like one year. Bowen would be going into his third season with the team which means he's like 87 in backup catcher years. That's just not going to work.

Subsequently, Bowen has reportedly been placed on waivers. It remains unclear whether the A's plan to trade the 28-year-old switch hitter, or if they hope to slip him through waivers and send him to Sacramento.

I'd prefer the latter, as Bowen's apparent replacement--Landon Powell--has had a little trouble staying healthy. When he's out there, however, he's been pretty good with the bat and has a reputation for being a fine receiver. It will be interesting to see what Landon can do with approximately three to five at-bats per week.

Anyways, the only time I saw the 27-year-old in person was last spring at Papago Park, and it was really an amazing sight. Powell was injured, and I could not believe how, um, large he was. Like huge.

I guess getting rid of Bowen would somewhat alleviate the organizational catching log jam, but I can't imagine the team will receive much in return. What would you like to see happen to Bowen? Send him to Triple-A, trade, or release?

So long Duke

As soon as I heard Justin Duchscherer was feeling "discomfort " in his right elbow I thought one thing: crap.

Here's Duke's take on the whole situation. It gets worse with each passing word:

"It doesn't bother me at all except when I'm throwing, and even then it doesn't bother me until I start throwing at about 80-percent intensity. But once I get up to 80 percent, it's pretty bad -- to the point that I can't even bend my elbow."

Can't bend your elbow? That doesn't sound good. No that doesn't sound good at all. So what does Bob Geren think:

"His Opening Day start is definitely in jeopardy."

I'd say I definitely agree. In fact, it sounds like we might not be seeing Duchscherer any time soon. Can't really be surprised. The dude's made four trips to the DL in the past three seasons. Hopefully he's just getting his obligatory injury stint out of the way early.

So when do you think Duchscherer makes his first start? I'm going with Tuesday May 7.

Predicting the 25-man: postion players

Nomar is in the fold. I like this deal. Although, I should probably hold off on saying something like that until we actually hear the terms of the deal. I'll assume it's something like 1-2 million. I've been calling for the A's to sign someone with Nomar's skillset--leftymasher who plays the corners--so I'm glad it finally happened. Obviously, Nomar will spend some amount of time on the DL this season, it's just a question of much much. I say two trips 45 days. What's your guess?

Anyways, the addition of Nomar should be the last position player acquisition of this historically dragged out hot stove season. I won't be surprised to hear that the A's have signed Denny Reyes in the coming days, or maybe even a Mark Mulder later this month, but that's it.

With that in mind, I think it's a good time to predict who will be heading north to Anaheim on April 6. While a fun exercise, it's really quite pointless to guess who makes the opening day roster. By the end of the season, the team will probably have run through 35-40 (maybe even more) players, some of whom aren't even in the organization yet. So who really cares who's there on day one?

Let's assume the team carries 12 pitchers. Just who the dozen will be isn't in the least bit clear so let's focus on the position players.

13 Spots

The Locks
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Suzuki
Sweeney
Cabrera
Nomar
Crosby*

If healthy
Chavez
Ellis^

Play their way out of a job
Buck
Davis
Bowen

Play their way into a job
Powell
Galarraga
Cunnigham
Denorfia

Random dude who makes team
Corey Wimberly. Wait. That doesn't make sense. I have no idea. Who's your guess?

*Hannahan takes spot if Crosby is traded.
^Pennington takes spot if Ellis isn't ready to go.

Orlando Cabrera and Bobby Crosby: lots of questions, not a lot of answers

Orlando Cabrera and the A’s have agreed in principle to a one year 4 million dollar contract. I’m not exactly sure what took so long. I mean, I welcomed the guy back on February 3rd. Anyways, the 34-year-old should be in camp with his new teammates by the end of the week.

Things I like about Cabrera’s arrival. One. Jack Hannahan’s chances of making the team just decreased. Two. The deal is only worth 4 million dollars.

Things I do not like. One. The deal is only worth 4 million dollars. I’m not saying that the A’s low-balled Cabrera, that would just be false. But at the same time I can’t imagine that Orlando is terribly excited to be getting signed after camp has already opened, and for less than half of what he thought he was worth. Doesn’t sound like a good remedy for a guy who already has a reputation for being a less than awesome teammate. Although then again, maybe he will be gunning for a pay-day in 2010.

Things I’m not sure about. Um, what the heck happens to Bobby Crosby? Do they keep him around as a utility infielder? I mean, theoretically he could see time at all four infield positions, and there’s always the chance that Mark Ellis is much more hurt than the organization is letting on. Does Crosby get shipped out in a salary dump? Is that even possible? How much money would the team have to eat?

My guess. Crosby gets Kotsayed.

I bet Ziggy didn't have too many stop and chats with those guys last spring. Cargo pants, Billy? Really?


In the gallery there are like three different shots of that sign. It is ironic. Thank you Yahoo. I get it.

Anyways, what was I saying again? Oh yea, the Yahoo team page isn't bad for pics, but does anybody know if something like this exists for the A's?