I love day games.

If you’ve ever read something I’ve written and thought to yourself: What the...? Has this guy ever even seen the team play? Well, then you’d be correct. I haven’t. Nope. Not since last August.

You see, I’m currently living in Spain, which means a 7 o’clock game in Oakland doesn’t get underway until 4 AM local time in Madrid. I’d love to take a look at likes of Holliday, Giambi, Nomar, Cahill and Anderson, but at this point there’s not point getting greedy. I’d probably settle for Edgar Gonzalez throwing a simulated game to Jack Hannahan.

Sure, checking the boxscore gives me a little extra incentive to get out of bed and make it to class on time in the mornings. But sleeping through almost every game? Well, that just pretty much sucks. So how about you? Do you have any experiences/horror stories as a non resident A’s fan, or a NRAF as us baseball nerds like to refer to ourselves as? Feel free to share below.



Oh yea, and one more thing. Jackie Robinson: you sir, are the man.

Moneyball: The art of how the hell am I going to pay for seven first round picks?

One of the things that bothered me about the book Moneyball was the overdrafts of Jeremy Brown and Steve Stanley-type proportions. I appreciate the fact that Billy Beane was using radical, and what ended up being trend setting methods of statistical analysis, but why bother spending a first and second round pick on a couple of guys who nobody else had on their boards? That just doesn’t make any sense.

Well, actually it does. As Billy himself discusses, the team didn’t have the money to sign 7 legit first round picks. To be fair, there were probably only a handful of teams that did. Now look. I’m not trying to suggest that the famed 2002 draft was a bust. That would just be false. The first round alone yielded three big leaguers, and that’s not even including Jeremy Brown and his .864 career OPS.

But still, talk about a missed opportunity by ownership. Seven picks in the first 39? That’s insane. So if ever there was a time to not be cheap as hell, well, that was probably it.

And so it contiues...

Tonight at 7:05 PT Brett Anderson makes his major league debut at home against the Seattle Mariners. I’d love to be there to watch it, hell, even to just catch a couple of innings on TV, but unfortunately, due to a prior engagement—my being asleep—I will be unable.

As I might have mentioned once or twice in the past, I’m not particularly fond of the idea of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting the year in the big league rotation. Out of the duo Anderson is the one I am less concerned about, but that's not to say I’m not worried about the young lefthander. Just that I think he has a slightly smaller chance of getting carpet-bombed out of Oakland.

I’m feeling good about Anderson’s start tonight. I really am. Seattle will be without Ichiro, and it’s only logical to assume that the Oakland offense will put up 14 singles, so Anderson should be good to go. But just for fun, let’s revisit why it should probably be an Edgar Gonzalez starter we are getting ready for instead.

The case against the young guys:

• Holding these guys back in the minors for the month of April would probably buy the team an extra year of club control
• Neither guy has pitched more than 37 innings in Double-A, and only Anderson has been to Sacramento
• Based on the number of innings they each pitched last season neither figures to eclipse 160 innings pitched in ’09, which would seem to suggest one of two scenarios:

1) Beane is banking on them not being very and thus not being around all season anyways, which begs the question: what are they doing here in the first place?

2) The team is planning to shut them down sometime around mid to late August, pennant race or not. That would be weird.

• The possibility of wrecking the development curve of two of the organization’s most valuable prospects. Of course, this might be a bit of an exaggeration. A few disastrous starts probably won’t permanently ruin Anderson/Cahill mentally, but I’d really prefer it was Gonzalez’s psyche that Beane was toying with

The case for:

• Billy Beane said so. I think.
• Edgar Gonzalez.

So how do you see ’09 playing out for the pair 21-year-olds? Will they spend the entire season in Oakland? I see Anderson winning between 10-12 games with a mid-4 ERA, but expect Cahill to spend at least two months in the state capital.

An update to the post below

I made a mistake in the previous post that I am embarrassed to have made. I paid my respects to Mr. Adenhart, yet failed to even mention the names of the other two who died (or the fourth passenger who is currently in critical condition). I think my error is instructive on how this situation is being dealt with/processed at large.

I'm sure that what I write next will offend some people, but I think it's a worthwhile thought so I'm going to express it nonetheless. I appreciate the outpouring of grief over the senseless passing of a 22-year-old man. His death is a terrible, terrible tragedy. But fuck that shit you are missing the point.

This story is not about Nick Adenhart. That much is obvious from the fact that two others died along with him. This story is about our society and the drunk driving epidemic that we face. Somebody dies in a drunk driving crash every 22 minutes. Do you know how many other anonymous individuals have died since Nick lost his life? I don't either and I really don't feel like doing the math.

The fact is, the only reason why any of us is even aware of this story is because it involved a dude who happened to be really freaking good at throwing a little white ball. I'm not saying we shouldn't honor the memory of Nick, or that we should stop what we are doing every 20 minutes and think about the poor man, woman or child who just died. In fact, I don't really know what I'm saying. I guess I just want to say RIP Henry Nigel Pearson and Courtney Stewart. You too will be missed.

Sad Day

Was going to post something about tonight's game, but then I came across this. I'm not sure yet whether the game will be played, but either way I most likely won't be posting anything.

Something about death, baseball and life in perspective. Ugg. This makes me sick. RIP Nick Adenhart.

Trevor Anderson

Before Spring Training began I figured that if there was one young pitcher the A’s would risk putting in the starting rotation it would be Vince Mazzaro. My logic was really quite simple.

One. Mazzaro had the most professional experience of the trio. Sure, not a whole lot more, but at least he’d spent an entire season above A-ball.

Two. Relatively speaking, Mazzaro is the least valuable prospect of the three. Which is to say that if for some strange reason one of these guys were to just so happen to implode, suffer a serious loss in confidence and never again regain their 2008 form, I’d prefer it be Vince. It’s not that I have anything against Mr. Mazzaro, but just a simple matter of ceilings. Vince’s is by far the lowest, and I don’t think that it's really a debate.

And up until about 1:05PM on March 17 it looked like that just might happen; that Mazzaro would force his way into the Opening Day rotation. But then the game happened. And then this game happened. And then Gio got hurt. And then Duke got more hurt. And then Gallagher sucked.

And suddenly Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill had pitched their way into the rotation. Well, not really pitched so much as to be the only guys who were healthy and hadn’t been totally awful.

Having all of one’s limbs attached, and being better than Edgar Gonzalez, however, are hardly compelling justifications for rushing two of the organization’s most prized prospects to the Major Leagues. But I swear, I’m not utterly horrified of the possibility that Anderson and or Cahill could have their development curve permanently retarded.

I mean, come on. This is Billy Beane we are talking about. Dude knows pitching. He would never take such a foolish risk. However, there have been conspiratorial whispers that the promotion of the pair of 21-year-old’s hasn’t been purely a baseball decision, but rather the result of a mandate forced on Beane from above.

I don’t really buy this theory and let my explain why. As a fan, I would certainly hope that Lew Wolff would want to field the most competitive team possible. The thing is, I’m not convinced that starting the year with Anderson/Cahill on the team is the surest way to go about doing so. If Lew really wanted to field the best team possible then Beane surely would have explained to him that it would make more sense to add a few millions dollars in payroll to sign/trade for a veteran innings eater and slide Gallagher into the final spot, then it would to risk the development of the kids.

That way you give Gallagher the month of April to see if he can straighten things out, Anderson/Cahill get some more minor league seasoning and you probably even gain an extra year of club control by holding them both back.

So how are you feeling with the Trevor Anderson Era set to begin tonight? Terrified? Bullish? I think I’m somewhere in between. I see Cahill going six innings and giving up one run. Either that, or he doesn’t make it out of the third. Predictions below please.

Where are they now

The final week of Spring Training can be an exciting time for fringe types. Of course, it can also really suck. So let’s take a look at which ex-Athletics made the cut, and which ones didn’t.

4/1
Emil Brown, Padres: reassigned to Minor League Camp

4/3
Brooks Conrad, Braves: reassigned

4/4
Kiko Calero, Marlins: contract purchased
Mike Sweeney, Mariners: contract purchased
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: DL, take a guess why
Esteban German, Cubs: released
Tim Hamulack, Royals: reassigned
Angel Berroa, Yankees: reassigned

4/5
Chad Bradford, Rays: DL, elbow

The selection process here was thoroughly arbitrary as I passed over a number of players who only spent time with the organization in the minor leagues or during Spring training, yet nonetheless felt compelled to include Tim Hamulack. As a result, feel free to add guys that I might have missed. Intentionally, or otherwise.

According to the sidebar, Trevor Cahill will be the day-after-Opening Day starter.

Spring Stats

Spring stats are fun to look at. The problem is, they just aren’t worth that much. One. There’s the small sample size issue. Two. A ton of the guys who play in the Cactus League will be spending the upcoming season in Double, Triple or even Single-A. Three. Veterans don’t really give a crap about their spring stats, so long as they’re getting their work in. Four. The games are played in Arizona, where the dry climate tends to make breaking ball, um, not break, and turn guys like Rajai Davis into Rickey Henderson.

With these qualifications in mind I’m certainly not about to make broad sweeping generalizations about a couple of the team’s first basemen. That would just be silly and downright unscientific. But at the same time Daric Barton and Jason Giambi have both had noteworthy springs, and both for rather different reasons.

Coming into play today Barton has put up a line of .407/.448/.704. That’s certainly better than anybody could have hoped for, especially considering the late start that he got due to a couple of nagging injuries, and his utterly woeful 2008. Even still, Barton’s ticketed for Sacramento, and I think that makes a lot of sense. If Barton’s still doing what he’s doing right now come June, I know the A’s will find a spot for him. Between injuries, and ineffectiveness on the big club there’s no way they don’t.

Giambi meanwhile, the old man brought in to supplant the kid has to this point slashed .147/.235/.341. No big deal. Giambi’s just a vet getting his reps in. Getting ready for when it actually counts. I’m not worried about Giambi’s less than stellar spring. No, seriously. I swear. I’m not. I mean, I’ve been president of the “Bring Back Giambi Fan Club” for years. I certainly wouldn’t try to suggest that Giambi is about to suffer a catastrophic age-related decline on the basis of 34 at-bats in March. That just wouldn’t make any sense.

But at the same time, I wasn’t in the least bit concerned by Travis Buck’s spring last year, and we all know how that turned out. Yea, the situations are a bit different. Giambi’s going into his fifteenth season, Buck was entering his second. I guess I’d just like to see a little life in the big guys bat before the team heads north for the summer.

So what do you think? At what point does Giambi’s lack of statistical success begin to concern you? When he enters the regular season with a BA south of .200? When he’s still under .200 and the calendar turns to May? Or the third option: You are an idiot. Giambi will be fine. Please explain below.

The Steroid Witch Hunt: Part III

It was while doing research for this profile that I realized that my idea wasn’t quite as ingenious as I had originally imagined. Though I had more or less stumbled upon the first two players that I had profiled, the following post demonstrates that all I’m really doing is looking for spikes in home run totals and then pointing my finger and saying: Hey, you! Yea, you over there. You’re a cheater! That’s not really scientific, or empirical or even all that convincing. But then I remembered this guy.



I mean, look at him. Are you kidding me? That guy hit 38 home runs? I can barely believe that guy even played in the major leagues. He looks like a seventh grade math teacher. Get out of here Jay Bell. You sir, did steroids.

The left handed reliever

At the moment the A's have six lefties in big league camp:

Braden
Eveland
Anderson
Gonzalez
Outman
Blevins

All but Blevins have, or are in the running for a rotation spot. Well, as per rotoworld, Gio has just been removed from the hunt due to a bum wing that has kept him off the bump. It would seem pretty obvious then that Blevins, if only by default, would be the lone lefty out of the pen to begin the season. But the month of March has not been kind to the tall left hander.

Today he was touched up for 6 hits and 3 runs in just one inning of work, balloning his spring ERA to 11.74. That's just not gonna cut it. Even when you are seemingly competing against yourself for a spot. Of course, Jerry isn't competing against himself.

Outman and Gio are very much factors in the bullpen competition. Note what Bob Geren said about Gio's situation earlier today:

"He just hasn't been able to throw enough [to be considered for the rotation at this point]."

While time isn't on his side--he isn't expected to do any throwing for another week--the possibility does remain that Gio could open the season in the pen. Using Gio as a reliever wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but it's also far from ideal.

Gio's 23, a former top prospect and has a career minor league K/9 ratio of 10.5. Dude should be starting somewhere. Be it in Oakland or Sacramento. The same could be said for Outman to a slightly lesser extent. Which brings me to two questions. One. When do organizational needs trump development needs of individual players? Two. Who the heck is going to be the lefty out of the pen?

So who do you like:
Outman
Gio (if healthy)
Blevins
Other (outside of organization)
None

Please explain you selection below.

The slightly more than five million dollar man

Bobby Crosby isn’t very good. But worse than that he’s expensive. As it currently stands he’s supposed to be something of a utility infielder. Problem is, Bobby Crosby can’t really play anywhere but shortstop. That might sound strange, but from the reports I’ve read out of Phoenix it seems to be true. Apparently he looks uncomfortable at third, doesn’t know what he’s doing at first, and is downright awful at second. That doesn’t bode well for his future in Oakland.

The way I see it the A’s have three options. One. Hope Crosby figures out how to field a couple of positions other than shortstop. Two. Hope that some other team’s shortstop breaks a leg and try to pawn him off on them. Of course, this option almost certainly entails the A’s eating something like 3-4 million dollars. Three. Give him the outright release.

I’m holding out for option number two, but am beginning to think option number three is the most likely outcome. The biggest holdup to giving Crosby the boot is the fact that he will be making 5.25 million dollars this season. There are those who say that Crosby is a sunken cost and that the A’s may as well cut their losses now. While there are others who say the A’s should get what little value they can from Crosby and that they should keep the dude around. To fully understand the team’s financial commitment to Crosby, however, I think the situation must be examined in the proper historical context. To do so, let’s take a quick little trip back to April 2005.

At the time Bobby Crosby was coming off a campaign in which he smashed 22 homeruns and nabbed Rookie of the Year Honors. The slash line was a bit troubling—.239/.319/.426—but still, 24-year-old shortstops with that type of power don’t just grow on trees. So Billy Beane decided to do what Billy Beane does best and tried to beat the market. He locked up Crosby for five years at 12.75 million dollars.

The terms of the deal seemed team friendly enough. Hell, even if Crosby never improved off his first season he’d still be worth every penny. No way could this deal go wrong. Not a chance. Think about it. Beane had just bought what would be Crosby’s most productive five seasons for just under 13 million bucks. Awesome.

But then Bobby Crosby happened. The injuries. The sliders off the plate. More injuries. More sliders off the plate. From the day he signed that contract, until, well, today, Crosby has been awful, injured, or some combination therein. (Note: In 2005, he actually managed an .802 OPS, but that was in all of 84 games.) In the past three seasons he’s put up back, to back, to back sub-.650 OPS lines.

And now we return to the present and Bobby Crosby doesn’t have a starting spot, maybe not even a job on this year’s team. And no matter how many at-bats he gets this season he still gets paid the same. But when I think about it in this larger context I don’t feel quite so bad.

Sure, it sucks that the team is on the hook to pay Crosby in ’09, but I have a hard time blaming Beane for his gamble. If anything, I think it validates his general strategy of going year by year with the young guys. And if ever there was a time to break from this strategy, a young power hitter who plays a premium defensive position would seem to present a pretty good opportunity to do so.

So what do you think? Does viewing the Bobby Crosby situation in this context make you feel any better? Do you fault Beane for taking the risk, or do you just never want to see Bobby Crosby flail at a slider again?

Money

Today a friend of mine told me that I am the stingiest man that has ever lived. With that in mind, let’s talk about the Oakland Athletics, and their young pitchers in specific. Cahill, Anderson and Mazzaro have all had pretty freaking amazing springs. Probably better than anybody could have hoped for. But not only have they put up impressive stats, they have also been praised by the likes of Jason Giambi and Billy Beane for exuding a quiet confidence, and the general sense that they, well, belong. And maybe they do belong in Oakland come Opening Day.

There almost certainly isn’t room for all three, but with 6 guys still competing for what appears to be 2 open spots, it’s not absurd to think that two of them could make the rotation. Of course, spring performance is not the only factor that plays a part in such decisions. There are also economic matters to consider. Namely the fact that if the A’s hold these three back for say three weeks in Sacramento the team will have them under club control for one extra year. I tend to think that’s kind of a big deal.

Yes, that’s a bit cheap, but isn’t that exactly what the Rays did with Evan Longoria last season? Sure, they turned around and handed him a contract extension, but if Longoria continues to put up numbers like he did in his rookie season, that deal is going to end up looking ridiculously club friendly.

So here’s the question: should arb. clocks factor into the team’s decision of whether or not the young guys begin the season in the rotation? I say yes. Of course, there’s also the minor consideration that a little more Triple-A seasoning, or in Cahill’s case his first taste, couldn’t hurt.

The Triple-A infield

As the post below demonstrates, I've been thinking quite a bit recently about the A's glut of not quite that good, or in other cases not quite ready infielders. With that in mind, I have reached a new low. Today I am rosterbating about the Rivercat’s infield situation. Here’s the list of players who could see time in ’09.

Barton
Doolittle
Bozied
Petit
Pennington
Patterson
Wimberly
Chen
Baisley
Dillon

This list doesn’t even include Jack Hannahan who very well could end up in Sacramento if Ellis and Chavez are both ready for Opening Day. So how do 10 guys share four positions? Let’s break it down by position.

First base:
It's easy to forget that just one calendar year separates Daric Barton and Sean Doolittle. Doolittle is coming off a very impressive big league camp, and Barton is very much in the team’s future plans, so the pair of youngsters will split time at first base. Both, of course, are lefties, so no platoon to be had here. Between Barton DHing and Doolittle playing right, both of their bats will be in the lineup everyday. A huge first half by Chris Carter in Midland could further complicate the situation, and I haven't even considered minor league vet Tagg Bozied fits in. Unless he spends time in left field/DH, it looks like he'll get released.

The Middle infield:
Gregorio Petit, Cliff Pennington, Eric Patterson, Corey Wimberly and Yung Chi Chen. One would think that Petit and Pennington would switch off at second and short, but that doesn’t leave much room for Patterson and Wimberly. Assuming he’s not traded, Patterson probably figures to see most of his action in left field. I get the feeling that the organization thinks very highly of Wimberly and his stirrups, so he probably sees time at five or six positions. Basically everywhere but first. Chen looks like he might go from 40-man to released in the span of a couple of weeks. Either that, or he’s headed to Midland.

Third base:
Jeff Baisley and Joe Dillion will probably share the hot corner, but as they are both righties there are no obvious platoon opportunities. Further crowding the picture is the presence of Hannahan and the fact that Petit, Pennington and Wimberly all could see time at third base.

Conclusions:
As it currently stands, it looks like three of these guys are going to get released or demoted. Of course factoring in injuries and general crapiness, it will probably just be two. Barton, Doolittle, Petit, Pennington and Wimberly all seem to have spots locked up. Any of the other five, however, could be in danger. I see Chen as the most likely release candidate followed by Bozied, and Patterson seems the most likely to leave via a trade. I can see him being dealt for a high upside, high risk A-baller. Dillon’s versatility, and Baisley’s roster status probably keep them on the squad. In the end, it seems as though there will be a lot of infielders taking fly balls for the Rivercats next season.

Stone hands

I think a lot of A's fans, at least, those who follow the minor leagues were a bit confused when the team let last year's Texas League Batting Champ Jesus Guzman sign with the Giants this past offseason. At the time, third base was kind of a how do we say... organizational black hole. Yes, that's the phrase.

Anyways, since then things have gotten a little better. Nomar is now in the green and gold, but Eric Chavez is injured, or experiencing a set back or something like that. Point is, nobody should be counting on Chavez to be in the lineup come Opening Day, and if you think Nomar can play six days a week, well, you are just fooling yourself.

After those two guys, the third base depth chart looks something like this:

Crosby
Hannahan
Petit
Pennington
Baisley
Dillon
Chen

I'm not sure if that's the exact order, but I think you get the point. Nothing too exciting. Most of those guys on the list will give you solid defense, but none of them are going to give you much in the way of offense. Which is where Guzman comes in, or rather doesn't.

The reason why Guzman chose the Giants over the A's was that San Fransisco was willing to extend him an invite to big league camp. The A's weren't. Until now, (thanks Mr. Baggarly) I hadn't heard the A's logic for making this decision. So here's what David Forst had to say:

"He hadn't played much in Triple-A and our player development people weren't sure what position he'd ultimately play," said Forst, who wished Guzman well. "There's no doubt he can hit, but we already had other guys with similar defensive profiles and we couldn't justify bringing Jesus in."

Okay, so the organization has guys with similar defensive profiles, but do they have anybody with a similar offensive profile? Maybe. There's a chance that Crosby might outhit Guzman in '09, but there's also a chance that Guzman might be really freaking good. Crosby, not so much.

My question is this: how bad must Guzman's defense be for the team to give an invite to Dillon, and roster spots to all the others? I'm guessing pretty awful. What type of defense would you put up with for the offensive potential of someone like Guzman? Should the A's have resigned Guzman, or will nobody even remember his name two years from now?

Can’t. stop. rosterbating.

Pitchers (12)

Starters (5)
Eveland
Braden

Pick Three:
E. Gonzalez
G. Gonzalez
Vince Mazzaro
Gallagher

I pick:
E. Gonzalez
Mazzaro
I have no idea.

Relievers (7)
Ziegler
Springer
Wuertz
Casilla
Devine^
Long man
Lefty

^Joey Devine really is a true Athletic. I have no faith in his ability to be ready for Opening Day.

Darkhorse: Andrew Bailey

Position Players (13)
Suzuki
Powell
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Sweeney
Cabrera
Nomar
Buck
Davis
Hannahan
Crosby
Mark Chavez*

*I am certain that one of, if not both of Ellis/Chavez will not be ready for Anaheim. Thus Jack Hannahan. The list of reserve infielders is as so: Hannahan, Petit, huge gap, Cliff-.077- Pennington, Corey-Not-on-the-40-Man-Wimberly.

Questions. One. Who should get the final three spots in the rotation? Two. Who the heck is the long man (seems like the perfect spot for the recently departed Jerome Williams), and can we please sign Joe Beimel already? Three. If Mark Ellis isn’t ready to go on April 6, what does your infield alignment look like? Crosby at short, Cabrera at second. Or. Hannahan at second, Crosby on bench.

Quick Note: A couple of thoughts on the backup catcher situation

One. If Landon Powell is going to be Kurt's new caddy, I would like to see him also become a part of the first base rotation. Ideally, nearly all of these at-bats would go to the likes of Nomar and Giambi, but for the sake of keeping Powell fresh I think it might not be such a bad idea to play him at first as well.

Two. Assuming Bowen loses his 40-man spot one way or another, who gets it? A non-roster pitcher? Maybe an Edgar Gonzalez or one of the young starters? I say Vince Mazzaro. So who do you see claiming the spot?

The Steroid Witch Hunt: Part II

Fernando Tatis was that dude who hit two grand slams in one inning. That is really cool. Like historically cool. No seriously, it is. Nobody else has ever done that. Ever. Anyways, The Bombing of Chan Ho Park occurred back in 1999, the same year in which Tatis hit 34 dingers. Outside of that season, however, Fernando has pretty much been a scrub.

Well, that’s not entirely true. In 2000 he actually OPSed .870, but after a miserable 2003 he was out of a job, and only managed 56 at-bats over the next four seasons before resurfacing with the Mets last summer. In fact, Tatis' '99 season accounts for 33% of his career home run total. So what was I saying again? Oh yea. Fernando Tatis: you sir, did steroids.

The Landon Powell Era begins

As per the Drumbeat it appears as though the A's will have a new backup catcher in 2009. That makes sense when you consider that backup catchers usually have a shelf life of like one year. Bowen would be going into his third season with the team which means he's like 87 in backup catcher years. That's just not going to work.

Subsequently, Bowen has reportedly been placed on waivers. It remains unclear whether the A's plan to trade the 28-year-old switch hitter, or if they hope to slip him through waivers and send him to Sacramento.

I'd prefer the latter, as Bowen's apparent replacement--Landon Powell--has had a little trouble staying healthy. When he's out there, however, he's been pretty good with the bat and has a reputation for being a fine receiver. It will be interesting to see what Landon can do with approximately three to five at-bats per week.

Anyways, the only time I saw the 27-year-old in person was last spring at Papago Park, and it was really an amazing sight. Powell was injured, and I could not believe how, um, large he was. Like huge.

I guess getting rid of Bowen would somewhat alleviate the organizational catching log jam, but I can't imagine the team will receive much in return. What would you like to see happen to Bowen? Send him to Triple-A, trade, or release?

So long Duke

As soon as I heard Justin Duchscherer was feeling "discomfort " in his right elbow I thought one thing: crap.

Here's Duke's take on the whole situation. It gets worse with each passing word:

"It doesn't bother me at all except when I'm throwing, and even then it doesn't bother me until I start throwing at about 80-percent intensity. But once I get up to 80 percent, it's pretty bad -- to the point that I can't even bend my elbow."

Can't bend your elbow? That doesn't sound good. No that doesn't sound good at all. So what does Bob Geren think:

"His Opening Day start is definitely in jeopardy."

I'd say I definitely agree. In fact, it sounds like we might not be seeing Duchscherer any time soon. Can't really be surprised. The dude's made four trips to the DL in the past three seasons. Hopefully he's just getting his obligatory injury stint out of the way early.

So when do you think Duchscherer makes his first start? I'm going with Tuesday May 7.

Predicting the 25-man: postion players

Nomar is in the fold. I like this deal. Although, I should probably hold off on saying something like that until we actually hear the terms of the deal. I'll assume it's something like 1-2 million. I've been calling for the A's to sign someone with Nomar's skillset--leftymasher who plays the corners--so I'm glad it finally happened. Obviously, Nomar will spend some amount of time on the DL this season, it's just a question of much much. I say two trips 45 days. What's your guess?

Anyways, the addition of Nomar should be the last position player acquisition of this historically dragged out hot stove season. I won't be surprised to hear that the A's have signed Denny Reyes in the coming days, or maybe even a Mark Mulder later this month, but that's it.

With that in mind, I think it's a good time to predict who will be heading north to Anaheim on April 6. While a fun exercise, it's really quite pointless to guess who makes the opening day roster. By the end of the season, the team will probably have run through 35-40 (maybe even more) players, some of whom aren't even in the organization yet. So who really cares who's there on day one?

Let's assume the team carries 12 pitchers. Just who the dozen will be isn't in the least bit clear so let's focus on the position players.

13 Spots

The Locks
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Suzuki
Sweeney
Cabrera
Nomar
Crosby*

If healthy
Chavez
Ellis^

Play their way out of a job
Buck
Davis
Bowen

Play their way into a job
Powell
Galarraga
Cunnigham
Denorfia

Random dude who makes team
Corey Wimberly. Wait. That doesn't make sense. I have no idea. Who's your guess?

*Hannahan takes spot if Crosby is traded.
^Pennington takes spot if Ellis isn't ready to go.

Orlando Cabrera and Bobby Crosby: lots of questions, not a lot of answers

Orlando Cabrera and the A’s have agreed in principle to a one year 4 million dollar contract. I’m not exactly sure what took so long. I mean, I welcomed the guy back on February 3rd. Anyways, the 34-year-old should be in camp with his new teammates by the end of the week.

Things I like about Cabrera’s arrival. One. Jack Hannahan’s chances of making the team just decreased. Two. The deal is only worth 4 million dollars.

Things I do not like. One. The deal is only worth 4 million dollars. I’m not saying that the A’s low-balled Cabrera, that would just be false. But at the same time I can’t imagine that Orlando is terribly excited to be getting signed after camp has already opened, and for less than half of what he thought he was worth. Doesn’t sound like a good remedy for a guy who already has a reputation for being a less than awesome teammate. Although then again, maybe he will be gunning for a pay-day in 2010.

Things I’m not sure about. Um, what the heck happens to Bobby Crosby? Do they keep him around as a utility infielder? I mean, theoretically he could see time at all four infield positions, and there’s always the chance that Mark Ellis is much more hurt than the organization is letting on. Does Crosby get shipped out in a salary dump? Is that even possible? How much money would the team have to eat?

My guess. Crosby gets Kotsayed.

I bet Ziggy didn't have too many stop and chats with those guys last spring. Cargo pants, Billy? Really?


In the gallery there are like three different shots of that sign. It is ironic. Thank you Yahoo. I get it.

Anyways, what was I saying again? Oh yea, the Yahoo team page isn't bad for pics, but does anybody know if something like this exists for the A's?

The guy who plays when Eric Chavez doesn't

As per Ken Rosenthal Nomar Garciaparra is currently choosing between Oakland and nobody, and by nobody I mean retirement. Having Nomar sure would beat the hell out of trotting Hannahan out there, but there are still of couple of issues I have with the signing.

One. It doesn’t really sound like Nomar actually wants to play. If the A’s are in the tank by June I could see the 34-year-old going the way of Todd Walker. Then again, if the A’s suck, who cares if their backup third baseman is any good.

Two. Picking up Nomar would kind of be like signing one guy who's always injured to replace another guy who's always injured. That doesn't really make any sense.

In the end, I say give Nomar a non-guaranteed deal for one million or less. If he’s healthy, awesome. If he’s not, here’s to hoping that Baisley/Dillon aren’t right handed versions of Jack Hannahan.

Speaking of right handers, what about this now completely hindsight/impossible option. On February 2nd I wrote this:

“So what do you think? Should the A’s throw 3 or 4 million at Wigginton to be a super-utilityman?

Like two days after that the Orioles did exactly what I predicted the A’s wouldn’t do: sign the 31-year-old to a two-year contract at three million per to be a lefty-masher. Three million might be a tad exepensive for a bench player, but I think there would be plenty of at-bats to be had. Suggesting Wigginton could fill in for Ellis might have been delusional, but he could backup the corners and even play right against tough lefties.

Anyways, I guess I'm just asking the same question as before, except now it includes one hypothetical answer:

Nomar
Wigginton
Baisley
Dillon
Hannahan
Other

Please explain.

The Steroid Witch Hunt: Part I

Editor's note: The following is the first in what I hope will become an ongoing series.

Obviously Bud Selig and the rest of his cronies have no intention of rating out all the players who ever stuck a needle in their nether-region. Think about it. We recently learned that 104 players tested positive for PEDs back into 2003, and so far we have one name.

Luckily, Bud’s got a pretty sweet excuse to fall back on. Those tests were collectively-bargained to be anonymous, and for the sake of labor relations, it’s probably best if they stay that way. But all this commie-uniony-type stuff isn’t going to appease the masses.

So maybe some intern could just leave the list lying around the league's Midtown offices. That way the public gets the names and Don Fehr deosn't get to complain. But until that happens, I’m going to take matters into my own hands, because clearly the commish just doesn’t have the stones.

I’m going to call guys out one by one. I’m going to make them pay. Just like A-Rod. So let’s begin.

Player One: John Jaha. You sir, did steroids.

John made it to the Majors in 1992 at the ripe old age of 26. He was pretty awful that year—.226/.291/.308—but that was just 147 at-bats. No conclusions to be drawn here. The next year John saw more than 500 at-bats, swatted 19 homers and had a .753 OPS. Not great, but also not 1992.

1994 was more of the same. A mid-.700s OPS and decent power. John was 28 by now and there was no reason to think he would get dramatically better. He would probably be a useful power bat off the bench for the next few years, but nothing more. But wait.

In 1995 Jaha was suddenly really good. He only made it into 88 games, but he slashed .313/.389/.579. Project that out over a full season and this guys an All-Star. And then in 1996 Jaha actually was an All-Star. Well, technically he wasn’t, but he probably should have been. 34 homers. 118 RBI! A .968 OPS. Holy crap John Jaha, who are you?

In 1997, however, Jaha was mostly injured and in 1998 he mostly sucked. Then in 1999 John came to Oakland and met Jason, Miggy and Randy, and suddenly he remembered how to hit a baseball. Like really far. That season was arguably the best of his career. 35 bombs. 101 walks. A .970 OPS. He made the All-Star Team, and was even named the league’s comeback player of the year. And all of this at the age of 33! What would Jaha do next?

Pretty much absolutely nothing. In the following two seasons Jaha crumbled into a pile of injuries and ineffectiveness. In 2000 and 2001 he left the park just once, and hit .175 and .089 respectively. So, at the age of 35 the Great Jaha was no more.

But 1999. I will always remember 1999.

The Chris Singleton Award

I still remember being utterly befuddled when I found out Billy Beane had signed Chris Singleton just two days before Christmas of 2002. It was the same sick feeling I had in my stomach when I learned that Beane had inked Emil Brown to a contract last offseason. Really? This guy? Does he haaave to be on our team? Yes, Karl. Yes he does.

But then spring training came around and something wonderful happened. Chris Singleton got injured! Sure it was only a minor strained hamstring or something, but still, it meant Singleton wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. But then something terrible happened. Singleton actually wasn’t that injured and he played on the first day of the season anyways.

I don’t remember much about Singleton’s 2003, but I do remember that he always seemed incredibly slow for such a fast guy. And that swing. Uhh. So weak. Those hands. So slow.

Looking back at the stats—.245/.301/.340—Chris actually wasn’t as bad as I had hoped he had been. I mean, he cracked the mythical .300 OBP plateau, and statistically, he wasn’t even the worst outfielder on the roster that season. No, not by a long stretch. That honor belonged to Jermaine Dye and his .514 OPS. Although, Dye had torn cartilage in his knee and a separated shoulder, so then again, maybe Singleton was.

Local product, or not, I just never liked the guy. From the day he signed until the day he was released. I never had any intention of giving Chris a chance. It didn’t matter what he did, or what kind of stats he put up. I just didn't want him on the team. In fact, you might say that Chris Singleton is my least favorite Athletic ever. Ryan Langerhans and Rich Becker are up there too, but Singleton, he’s number one.

So what about you? Who’s your least favorite player to ever don the green and gold? Rational loathing welcome, although a mix of the rational and the irrational will probably work out best.

Jason Giambi and the hometown discount

Last season Jason Giambi made 21 million dollars in the final year of a 7-year, 120 million dollar deal. This year Giambi will make 5.25 million, which incidentally is the exact same as what Bobby Crosby will make in 2009. Anyways, that's a huge pay cut. Sure, Giambi was wildly overpaid during the final few years of his mega-deal, but still, that's crazy. He will be making 75% less in 2009 than he did in 2008.

Has that ever happened before? I'd look it up, but I don't even know where to begin. I'd imagine other players have dealt with similar pay slashes, but damn, that's got to be right up there.

Obviously, the implosion of the free agent market didn't leave Giambi with many other options besides the A's offer, but I suspect there might have been another factor at work. Namely that 5 million dollar buyout check that the Yankees cut Giambi earlier this winter. So thanks George, or Hank, or Hal, or whoever it was that signed on the dotted line. Thanks.

Eric Chavez, you're dead to me

It's amazing the type of insight you can glean from reading that little rotoworld widget over there on the sidebar. Like for example, the fact that Eric Chavez will not be your Opening Day starting third baseman in Anaheim. Okay. So I made that up, but the logic is pretty irrefutable.

Chavez to miss first week of Spring Training. Chavez falls behind and doesn't get enough at-bats. Chavez suffers "mild" setback. Chavez to be out one week. Chavez mysteriously needs surgery. Chavez absconds to desert island. Chavez never heard from again.

So long of the short, what's your guess for number of games played by Eric Chavez in '09? I say 83. I'd show you the math, but it's really quite advanced. Here's to hoping I'm overly pessimistic.

Update. 9:33 PM. Brad Ziegler has been named to the USA WBC team. Should be an awesome experience for Ziggy, but I really do not like this news. Out of Devine, Casilla and Ziegler, I definitely think Brad is the least likely to injury himself/ruin his '09, but even still, I'd much rather he spent the month of March in the greater Phoenix area.

Did you know about this?

Last summer I made a point of making it out to Stockton to check out the A’s Single-A squad. I mean, the team was absolutely stacked. Cahill. Anderson. H. Rodriguez. Italiano. Leon. Demel. Lansford. Doolittle. Donaldson. Carter. Brown. Cardenas. The list goes on.

By the time I made it to Banner Island Park, a lot of those guys had been promoted, or in the case of Cahill, Anderson and Leon were no longer even in the country, but still, there was plenty to see. In particular, I wanted to get a look at the Donaldson, Carter and Brown. This post is about Corey Brown, however, so I’m not going to talk anymore about those other guys.

The warm August night that I watched the Ports play, Corey launched two homers and stuck out in his other two at-bats. A pretty good microcosm of his 2008. Last year Corey was one of just two A’s farm hands to swat thirty jacks. Of course, he also struck out 168 times in 565 plate appearances. That’s almost exactly thirty percent of the time, and also good for fourth in all of the Minors.

Corey’s the kind of prospect that nobody knows what to make of. He could be the next Mike Cameron, or he might never make it out of Double-A. Recently, however, I’ve soured quite a bit on Corey, and it doesn’t have a thing to do with that damned long swing of his.

A little while back while doing some research for another piece I stumbled across this little nugget, and by little nugget, I mean, OH MY GOD. You morally reprehensible sick son of a bitch. Half of you didn’t click on the link, and the other half of you will only skim the story so I’ll give you the one sentence summary as per Slusser:

“Three years ago, Brown pleaded no contest to felony battery in a case involving group sex with a 14-year-old girl.”

After reading the story, I feel like I know Corey Brown. He went to my high school. Well, not exactly, but my school definitely had a Corey Brown. I bet yours did too. You might have even heard similar stories, hopefully not as terrible as this one, but similar nonetheless.

When I read this story the first time I got a sick feeling in my stomach. I know Corey was only seventeen when this took place, but this isn’t just the kind of mistake you make once. You either are that guy, or you aren’t. Corey, I’m afraid, is.

So, I’ve got to admit, suddenly I’m a lot less excited about this 23-year-old center field prospect with 30 homer potential. I know there have been a lot of bad guys who’ve played the game. Shit, I’m sure I’ve even rooted for a few. But rape, that’s worse than bad. And after reading this story that’s sure what it sounds like.

I guess what I’m trying to say, is that I won’t be so upset if Corey gets eaten alive by Double-A pitching next year. It’s not like I'll be rooting against the guy, but at the same time, if all the K’s suddenly catch up with him, well, I’ll just shrug.

So what do you think? Am I overreacting? Does this change your opinion of Corey as a prospect and possibly a future Athletic? Did you already know about this? Am I just making a big deal out of, well, a big deal? Please explain below.

Jerome Williams

Mychael Urban has a nice piece up on the A's official website about the big Hawaiian. I'd forgotten how young he was when he first made it to the Majors with the Giants, and I have to say, after reading this I'm definitely going to be keeping a closer eye on the 27-year-old righty.

Sure, I'd love to see one of the young guys step up and grab the fifth spot, but I also wouldn't mind seeing Jerome swoop in. There's a pretty good chance we never hear this guys name after like March 14, but it wouldn't shock me to see him pitch, and pitch well in Oakland in '09.

If a tree falls in the forest...

Have you ever heard the expression: if a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Of course, you have. Anyways, I didn't realize until quite recently just how terribly stupid that question really is. I write this blog. Nobody knows it exists, but it sure as hell does. So yea, I heard that tree, and it was loud as hell.

A couple of unrelated thoughts

1) Update to the previous update. Apparently Dunn will be playing first base for the Nationals. My bad Jim. Although, I still think you have a problem. The infallible rotoworld widget suggests that this would mean Nick Johnson is even more available than he already was. Here is my opinion on Johnson. Do. Not. Want. My reasoning:

a) There have been reports that suggest the A’s would be willing to part with Daric Barton to acquire the 30-year-old slugger. Barton is coming off a miserable rookie season. Therefore this would be a classic example of selling low. Never really a good idea.

b) Johnson kind of has a little problem staying healthy. Like a I’ve only accumulated 147 plate appearances since 2006 problem. Sure, the guy has been an on-base and slugging machine when he’s actually out there, but the dude is kind of like Rich Harden. Except instead of being crazy good, he’s just pretty damn good.

Summary: Stash Barton in Triple-A, and wait to add that final piece until later this summer. One, that way you actually target a player who is having a healthy/productive season. Two, that player would theoretically cost less talent to acquire as he would most likely be in his contract year, and would only be on the team for 2ish months.

What do you think? Do you want to see Johnson in Oakland in 2009? I mean, shit, you can never have too many defensively limited, left-handed corner types, right?

2) The A’s have a new TV deal. Comcast has announced that they will be broadcasting 145 of the team’s games next season on CSNCalifornia. They will even have 75 of them in HD. I’m going to make the claim that outside of the Holliday deal this is the team’s biggest acquisition of the offseason. Seriously. This is awesome. TV deals are how baseball teams make serious cash. Hat tip to Lew and his minions.

Quick Note: Exactly how much better did the Angels just get?

According to SI, Bobby Abreu and the Angels have agreed to a one-year, five million dollar deal. Not bad. Not bad at all. Abreu, who turns 35 next month, has been healthy and productive for as long as I can remember. The projections like him to put up something like .280/.375/.440, and he’s apparently headed for the DH spot. Which is a good thing for baseball gloves everywhere when you consider that the defensive metrics have had him in the red since 2004. Last year he was pretty freaking awful. UZR gave him a -25.2.

Abreu probably ends up being a pretty good bargain for the Angels, but at the same time he’s not Mark Teixiera, Manny Ramirez, or even Adam Dunn. I think had the Angels signed anyone of those guys the A’s would have been pretty much screwed. They might still be screwed as it is, but I think they still have a chance. Obviously the A’s will need to have a ridiculous amount of breaks go their way (I’m talking a healthy Giambi/Chavez, and the emergence of a young pitcher type stuff), but I guess Abreu just doesn’t really scare me. So how do you feel about the Abreu addition?

Update. 9:08 PM: Adam Dunn to sign two-year deal with Nationals. I mean, I guess Washington needs another outfielder. Hey, Jim. I think it's time to admit you have a problem. Will be interested to see the terms.

An addendum to the last post

To your right you will see my list of suspected PED users. I last modified the list on 11/14/2007, which was about one month before the Mitchell Report was released. If I bolded a player's name that meant I was certain they were using. Take note of my A-Rod footnote.

Turns out I was only right about 14 out of 24 which means I get a big fat "F." Of course, I think Sweeney should be on the list since Bonds threw him under the bus already, and I can not figure out for the life of me how Luis Gonzalez isn't on there either. Have you seen his forearms? Do you remember 2001? That's just silly. Oh yea, Pete Happy should probably be on there too. And Batista. Don't know what I was thinking about LaRue though. Man that guy sucks.

The post that is not about Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, or any other single player for that matter.

Editor’s note: It’s long. Starts sarcastic. Becomes cynical. Ends conspiratorial. I’m sorry I just don’t know how else to do it.

I haven’t written anything for the past four days. Did you notice? Of course you didn’t, you don’t exist. I’m the only person who knows this blog* even exists. At least I think I am. That would be weird/creepy if you did. Anyways, as I was saying, I was in the south of Spain over the weekend and didn’t really think much about the A’s, or baseball at all for that matter. That is, until really late Saturday night when I was reading the headlines of the NYT. Let’s see. Congress still can’t decide on stimulus plan. More foreclosures in Florida. Afghan leader falling out with White House. 75% of all Russian sales in November were done through barter. Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids.

Hmm. That last one sounds kind of important.

You know what I thought when I read that headline: No, shit. And by no, shit, I mean, wow, I am not in the least bit surprised that A-Rod did steroids. Nope, not one bit. Sounds important, but not surprised. I also thought: hmm I wonder how many headlines will have the phrase “A-Roid” in them tomorrow morning?

So A-Rod did steroids. If you are surprised or angered I feel sorry for you. No, seriously I do. Come on man it was 2003. You did steroids, he did steroids, heck I’m pretty sure I did steroids. I mean, that year I grew five inches, gained forty pounds. Even had a few pimples on my back. Oh wait. That’s called puberty. Never mind.

A brief side note about Rodriguez. Do not give me this crap that A-Rod is a man and that he’s standing up to his mistakes. He’s not. It’s a fact. Let me jog your memory.

Katie Couric: For the record, have you ever used steroids, human growth hormone or any other performance enhancing substances?
Alex Rodriguez: No. I’ve never felt overmatched on the baseball field. And I felt that if I did my work as I’ve done since I was, you know, a rookie back in Seattle, I didn’t have a problem competing at any level.

Hm. That’s funny Alex, because I remember you saying this today:

"When I arrived in Texas in 2001, I felt an enormous amount of pressure. I felt like I had all the weight of the world on top of me and I needed to perform, and perform at a high level every day.”

“I wanted to prove to everyone that I was worth being one of the greatest players of all time.

“I felt a tremendous pressure to play, and play really well. I had just signed this enormous contract ... I felt like I needed something, a push, without over-investigating what I was taking, to get me to the next level."

Okay man. We get it. You were feeling some pressure. Take a hit man. Jeez.

Okay back to the story.

But seriously, everybody was doing it. That year 103 players not named Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids. And that number doesn’t even include Barry Bonds. He was clean. Well, the first time at least. 103. That’s a ridiculously high number when you consider that not even every player in the league was tested. The 103+1 just includes the guys who actually got randomly selected.

But when I heard that A-Rod+ 103 had tested positive for steroids there was another number that stuck out. 2003. That’s six years ago. What the fuck MLB? Not cool. Not cool at all. Barry Bonds is about to go to trial next month for something that conservatively 10-15% of his peers were doing. Yea, I know. Bonds isn’t going to trial for roiding, per se, but he probably wouldn’t have lied about it under oath if he had never been under oath in the first place. Kind of like those other 104 guys. (I guess it’s actually 94 since 9 other players were targets of the BALCO investigation.)

But seriously, why are we just now finding out about some drug tests that took place in 2003? Well, if the league and the union had their way, we never would have heard about these tests at all. Apparently, the idea behind the 2003 tests was that they would be used as a survey. If more than 5% of the players tested positive, then the league and the union would actually sort of think about maybe doing something the next year. Turns out 5% had, and it wasn’t even close. Oops. But still, baseball wouldn’t budget. In fact, the only reason why we have these positive tests is because the feds busted into a couple of labs and stole them from some dudes in white coats.

So now A-Rod’s cover is blown, and quite possibly your favorite player’s cover will be blown soon, as well. I don't know who leaked the information, and I don’t really care. A-Rod did steroids and there’s no way around it. One day he will be the all-time homerun king. But there might never be a day when he makes it to Cooperstown. #1 and #2 not in the Hall. But that’s not the only thing Alex and Barry have in common. They also tested positive for the same freaking steroid. Primobolan. Yet Alex is still in the midst of a record-breaking contract and Barry is facing time. By the way, I don’t think that he will ever serve a day.

But this is not about A-Rod. No. No. No. And it’s not about Barry. It’s about baseball. And how arbitrary and ridiculous the whole league is. A-Rod got protected. Barry didn’t. A-Rod was marketable. Barry was a dick. It’s about how in baseball, the bottomline is the bottomline. Bud Selig and Major League Baseball, and the owners and the union and the players are all out there to make as much money as possible. And having a competent drug program impedes that goal. But don’t blame baseball, its just business.

And Bud Selig is a good businessman. If you do not believe me, think about the fact that in the time it takes Bud to drink his coffee in the morning he probably makes more money than you do in a month, maybe a year.

And one last thing. Tom Hicks. Go screw yourself. Hicks to the AP earlier today:

"I feel personally betrayed. I feel deceived by Alex. He assured me that he had far too much respect for his own body to ever do that to himself.”

If by betrayed he means: thank you for all that money you made me when I sold little replica jerseys with your name on the back. Then fine. I take back what I said. But seriously Tom, go fuck yourself. Do you really expect me to believe that you didn’t know Alex was juicing? Have you ever met Jose, Juan or Ivan? Have you ever even watched your team play?

The owners knew about it, the league knew about it, the writers new about it, the union reps knew about it, the players knew about it. Some of the players even knew about the tests.

According to the initial SI report the other day, A-Rod was tipped off by union COO Gene Orza about an upcoming test in 2004. But again he wasn’t the only one.

On Saturday MLB drug czar Rob Manfred had this to say about any such tipping:

“Any allegation of tipping that took place under prior iterations of the program is of grave concern to Major League Baseball, as such behavior would constitute a serious breach of our agreement.”

Grave concern. I agree. That would look quite bad if the public found out you were tipping off select players. Very bad indeed. Oh no. The agreement. It has been breached!




*Spell check is putting that little red scwiggly line…damn it, it’s doing it again. Fine. So I horribly misspelled that word. There. squiggly…underneath the word blog. I guess MS Word doesn’t think blog is a word. Well, guess what dude. It is. Welcome to 2009.

The Aforementioned clusterf@ck

As I alluded to yesterday, the A’s outfield situation is really quite the mess. Matt Holliday has a job. Ryan Sweeney has a job (assuming he doesn’t go all Travis Buck 2008 on us). And Jack Cust will hopefully be staying far away from any baseball gloves in 2009. Once you get beyond those three, however, the picture gets pretty murky.

Travis Buck probably has the inside track to the starting job in right field, but a slow spring, or a popped hammy could easily ruin those plans. After Buck, the team has a handful of guys who are worth keeping around, but who for various reasons you’d really rather not see accumulate 400-500 at-bats next season. So let’s take a look at the list. (Note: I’ve included Buck/Sweeney because I think both could easily play/DL their way out of a job.)

Sweeney-I hope Ryan builds off his fine rookie season, you know, develops that 5 o’clock power into 7:05 power, but I’m not crossing my fingers. I think he’ll be a high average, low OPS guy. Sounds like a perfect trade candidate.

Buck-Travis is a personal favorite of mine so I really hope he bounces back in ’09. If you just pretend 2008 never happened there’s really no reason to think he won’t. Even if everything breaks right for Travis, however, I still see him as kind of a tweener down the line. Dude hits doubles and has a high OPS, but he really doesn’t profile as a corner outfielder. It’s really shame he can’t play center.

Cunningham-I really want to see Aaron force his way into the picture. Of course, I also want to see Buck getting everyday at-bats in right field. Between Buck/Sweeney’s fragility, and a possible Holliday trade, I think it might just happen.

Denorfia-Dude is really close to getting slapped with the dreaded Four-A label. Has hit at every stop in the minors, but has really been screwed by all the injuries. Like Murton, would probably benefit from a move back to the NL.

Davis-Probably has a job as long as Cust/Giambi remain on the roster. Which means for better or worse, his job security is tied to the health/productivity of someone other than himself. Also more of an NL type. I don’t think he would slip through waivers.

Herrera-Outside of his immediate family, I’m probably one of the only people who still believes in Javier. I know he’s endured an Andrew-Jones-like-decline/weight-gain all before the age of 23, but damn, the guys got tools. I really hope he gets a chance in Oakland before he gets the DFA.

Copeland-Sorry dude. Gotta wait in line.

Somewhere Ben Copeland is smiling

I was actually in the process of composing a little piece about the clusterf@ck that is the Oakland outfield when this news hit the wire. Here's what I had written about Murton:

I think keeping Murton in Triple-A is a waste. Check out his 2006 stats if you don't believe me. Dude can hit. I know it. Can he play first? Would probably benefit from a move back to the NL.

In return for Murton, the A's received a 25-year-old second baseman who stole 59 bases last season, but has yet to make it past Double-A. Smells like roster filler to me. Especially in an organization such as Oakland which is suddenly flush with second baseman who project to be at least league average.

Oh well, at least the trade clears up a spot on the 40-man. Welcome to Oakland, Orlando Cabrera.

Orlando Cabrera. ORLANDO CABRERA! Orlando Cabrera?

As you can tell, I’m not quite sure what I think about Orlando Cabrera. I know he’s not Bobby Crosby, which is good. But I also know he’s not Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Jimmy Rollins, Yunel Escobar or Rafael Furcal. Hell, he’s probably just a more expensive version of this guy.

This guy, by the way is Ray’s shortstop Jason Bartlett, who signed a one-year deal for about 2 million bucks a couple of weeks ago. Of course, in baseball, if you’re older you’re innately worth more money. Even if the younger guy has eerily similar stats. So carry the 1, add the 2, and according to my calculations Orlando Cabrera is worth something like 3-4 million per year. Oh yea, plus a second round draft pick. So would you make that deal?

I say yes, if only because it would make Brian Sabean look stupid for signing pretty much the same player for more than twice the money and twice the commitment.

Poll options
1-Yes.
2-No. Your analysis is shallow and pedantic. It delves no deeper than slash lines, and takes no account of defensive contributions.
3-No. It will take more dollars and more years to sign Cabrera.

Thinking about the little Athletics: Not another top 10

I was all set to write up my own top 10 prospect list, but as I got to thinking about it I realized that you could find better researched, and often more lengthy lists here, here, here and here. So instead of repeating the same tired exercise I’ve simply picked out 10 players who I’ll be keeping an extra close eye on in 2009.

Note: I’d also suggest keeping a particularly close eye on Corey Brown, but for a completely different reason. Yeesh. Guy’s a creep. Keep him away from your daughters. Seriously.

Rashun Dixon, CF- The guy can absolutely fly. He had 10 triples in 179 Abs last year. That’s insane. Was born in 1990, so will be interesting to see if the A’s start him in full season ball.

Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B-His true abilities have been obscured by the fact that he’s always been really young for his level. With that in mind, why not let him play shortstop for the A’s in ’09? Haha. Just kidding Sabean.

Chris Carter, um-Dude swatted 44 bombs as a 21 year old. Who says Cal League stats are an unreliable predictor of future performance?

Javier Herrera, OF-The guy’s been a prospect since before I was born. I know the outfield is stacked, but I think we will see him in Oakland before the season is out.

Gio Gonzalez, SP-According to the Gio Gonzalez Career Plan ©, the young lefty performs much better his second time around at a given level, which bodes quite nicely for his big league prospects in ’09.

Andrew Bailey, RP-I have a hunch that he will be the first of the organization’s gaggle of relief prospects to make an impact in Oakland.

Vince Mazzaro, SP-Vince strikes me as the underrated/underappreciated type, especially in a pitching heavy organization like Oakland. I think he’ll develop into a solid middle of the rotation innings eater. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked if he made the team out of spring training. Plus I once met him and his dad at the team’s minor league complex and he seemed like a pretty cool dude. Good enough for me.

Nino Leyja, SS-Another guy who missed out on the 80s. I know he’s young, I know he plays shortstop and I know he OPSed .862 last season. I also know that he spent 2008 in the AZL and that he’s still years off.

Josh Donaldson, C-Like Carter, Josh will be looking to prove himself in the upper minors for the first time. If he gets moved off catcher he goes from intriguing to just kind of interesting.

Brett Hunter, SP-Should move fast. Could end up as an over-slot steal. Note: I am hugely in favor of over-slot signings. Did I mention I like over-slot signings? Over-slot signings. I. like.

I also predict that James Simmons will finally complete his seven year indentured servitude in Midland, and join the rotation in Sacramento. You see what I did there? Eh? I said I was only going to talk about ten guys, but I slipped in an eleventh. So whom will you be watching out for in ’09?

MLB's Highest Paid Players from 2007

1. Alex Rodriguez: $23 million
2. Derek Jeter: $22 million
3. Jason Giambi: $21.5 million
   
4. Allan Huber Selig Jr.: $17,470,491 million
5. Roger Clemens: $17,442,637 million

Man. That's weird. I can't find any stats for that Allan Huber guy. Crap. He's making more than the Rocket.

Mike Wuertz is an Athletic

Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers to Chicago. Mike Wuertz to Oakland. I definitely didn't just find out this guy existed ten minutes ago. That is definitely not the case.

Wuertz is a 30-year-old righty, who further solidifies the pen, will only cost a million bucks, and has been solid the past four seasons. Sellers meanwhile is like Pennington Jr., only with a worse bat, while Robnett is, well, like not very good.

Quick Note: Second base, we have a problem

There have been rumblings that Mark Ellis might not be ready to go come opening day. (Just control+f "Ellis" on both of those pages to see what I'm talking about.) Which is really bad news unless your name happens to be Cliff Pennington, Gregorio Petit, Eric Patterson or even Yung Chi Chen or, gulp, Jack Hannahan.

That should be a fun little derby to watch, and by fun little derby I mean: OH MY GOD! My eyes. My retinas. They are bleeding. Why are you doing this to me?

It can't be that bad. Right? They can't all suck. Right?

My money's on MoneyPenny, but I'm hoping for Small.

The Case for Ty Wigginton

If my name were Billy Beane my 2009 opening day lineup would probably look something like this:

Buck-L
Ellis-R
Giambi-L
Holliday-R
Cust-L
Chavez-L
Suzuki-R
Sweeney-L
Crosby-R

We can quibble all you’d like over the exact order, but I feel fairly confident that these are the best nine guys the A’s can trot out there. Now to the assumptions I have made.

One, Travis Buck will win the starting job in right field. Two, Jason Giambi will be able to play the field five days a week. (Note: If my second assumption proves false, then I think Barton gets Buck’s spot, thus sending Giambi and Cust to DH/RF respectively.)

I like that lineup. I really do. I only have two minor problems with it. One, it leans rather heavily to the left (hence my placing Ellis in the second spot). Two, who plays first on the days that Giambi doesn’t? I think these problems might share a common solution.

In my roster construction Daric Barton begins the season in AAA, and stays there until he hits his way out of Sacramento. At first, it might seem like Barton would be the perfect understudy to Giambi, playing first on the days when Jason DHs (Cust to RF, Buck or Sweeney to bench), but that would mean Barton would be spending a whole lot of time doing a whole lot of nothing. I don’t like that idea. Barton’s 23. He needs to play everyday. If not in Oakland, might as well be Sacramento.

The other three in-house options would be Jack, Jeff and Joe. I definitely don’t want Hannahan starting twice a week, Baisley is unproven, and Dillon is a minor league journeyman who just doesn’t really inspire much confidence.

Which is where Ty Wigginton enters into the equation. Last season Wigginton OPSed 1.055 against lefties; good for fifth in baseball. So is there a fit in Oakland with a lefty-masher like Ty?

There are at least two compelling reasons why such an acquisition would never happen. One, Wigginton will most likely command multiple years and too many dollars for the A’s budget. Two, the A’s don’t have any obvious place to put him in the field.

But what about throwing Wigginton out there any time you face a lefty. Maybe play him twice a week at first, and once at second and third each to keep Chavez and Ellis fresh. Obviously, you’re not going to face four lefties a week, but you do what you can.

Of course, if Wigginton proves too expensive, you could always go for a Rich Aurilia, but at that point I think you are better off just taking your chances with what you already have. I guess I’m just really unenthused about seeing Baisley/Dillon out there multiple times a week, and would hate to see Barton rotting on the bench. So what do you think? Should the A’s throw 3 or 4 million at Wigginton to be a super-utilityman?

Frank Thomas Appreciation Thread

I might be jumping the gun a bit as the big dude might yet garner an NR-invite from some club, but I think Frank Thomas’ career is over. It’s a shame that a player as great as Frank won’t get the chance to end things on his own terms, but that’s just the way the economics of the league work these days. Teams just aren’t going to throw money at you because you used to be good. Frank is hardly alone in this respect, as you’ve got a whole host of aging sluggers who might just find themselves forced into involuntary retirement. There’s:

Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr., and to a lesser extent: Mosies Alou, Garret Anderson and Cliff Floyd.

Some of these guys will sign, some of them are probably too broken down to sign, and others probably won’t even get the chance. But that’s beside the point. This thread is about Frank, not those other guys.

I don’t think the A’s ever seriously considered bringing back Thomas for 2009, and I really can’t blame them. I mean, there’s the injuries, and then the fact that Beane recently signed a left handed, slightly less defensively inept, and slightly younger version of Thomas. However, if you consider how left-handed heavy the A’s lineup projects to be next season, it sure would have been sweet to keep Frank around as a right-handed pinch hitting specialist. Unfortunately, unless the A’s can get some roster exemption where Rajai Davis and Thomas only count as one player I just can’t imagine how they could ever fit him onto the roster.

So Frank is probably done, but let’s not forget just how historically good the Big Hurt was. Between 1991 (his first full season in the big leagues) and 1997 he missed the 1.000 OPS plateau just once. The lone year was 1992 when he slashed .323/.439/.536. Not bad. He also smashed 521 home runs. Same as some dude named Willie and another guy named Ted. Frank’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, there’s no doubt about it.

I remember watching him in the on-deck circle during spring training in 2006. I could have sworn the guy was 8 feet tall. As I remember, it was his first at-bat as an Athletic, and of course, he hit a home run. So what’s your favorite memory of the Big Hurt? Memories from his time as an Athletic are preferred, but feel free to open it up.